Civilizations rise and fall. It has happened countless times before, and it will likely happen again. But what if we zoom out even further—beyond the empires and nations of recorded history—and consider humanity as a whole? Recent research suggests that 800,000 years ago, our species barely survived a near-extinction event. Only about 1,280 breeding individuals remained, teetering on the edge of oblivion. The cause? Climate shifts, prolonged droughts, and dwindling food sources.
Now, as modern civilization grapples with climate change, economic instability, and technological disruptions, we must ask: Are we on the verge of a crisis that could drastically reduce our numbers, similar to what happened in the past? Are the patterns of history destined to repeat? Or can we break the cycle?
The Cycles of Civilization
History is littered with the remnants of once-great societies. The Romans, the Maya, the Sumerians, and countless others reached staggering heights before succumbing to collapse. Each had unique circumstances, yet the underlying factors often echo the same themes:
- Environmental collapse – Depletion of resources, climate change, or natural disasters.
- Economic and political instability – Corruption, inequality, and unsustainable economic structures.
- War and social unrest – Internal divisions or external pressures leading to systemic breakdown.
If civilizations have always collapsed, is our current global society any different? Or are we simply another iteration of a repeating pattern?
Humanity’s Near-Extinction: A Warning from the Past
The recent discovery of the genetic bottleneck 800,000 years ago suggests that Homo sapiens almost didn’t make it. Only a small group of our ancestors survived a prolonged period of extreme hardship. Some researchers theorize that this event shaped our evolution, leading to major genetic shifts that set modern humans apart from our hominin relatives like Neanderthals and Denisovans.
What can this tell us about our present and future?
- Collapse is not the end – Despite the near-extinction, humanity rebounded and flourished.
- Resilience and adaptation are key – Our survival depended on innovation, resourcefulness, and possibly early fire use.
- Small populations can drive big change – A tiny remnant of humans shaped the course of history. If civilization collapses again, what kind of world would the survivors rebuild?
Is Civilization an Evolutionary Dead End?
For most of human history, we lived in small, adaptable groups. Civilizations, in contrast, are fragile, interconnected, and prone to cascading failures. Some scholars argue that large-scale societies may be inherently unsustainable. If true, what comes after civilization? Would a future humanity opt for a decentralized, more resilient way of living?
The ‘Long Now’ Perspective: What’s Next?
We often claim that we have unprecedented technological capabilities, scientific knowledge, and global interconnectedness. But do we? There is growing evidence that civilizations before us may have been far more advanced than we assume. What happened to them? Did they collapse under the same weight of environmental and social instability that threatens us today? Could humanity itself be part of a larger cyclical process, akin to the way some spiritual traditions believe individuals reincarnate to evolve? If so, are we collectively repeating the same lessons until we pass some test of sustainability and wisdom?
If history follows a recurring pattern, is there a way to disrupt it? Or are we simply waiting for the next bottleneck, hoping that some small fraction of humanity will again carry the torch forward?
This is the beginning of an exploration—a deep dive into the past, present, and future of human civilization. Over the next series of articles, we’ll examine forgotten civilizations, the sustainability of large-scale societies, and whether history is, in fact, repeating itself.
Further Reading
Scientific American: Human Ancestors Nearly Went Extinct 900,000 Years Ago
New genetic research suggests that early human ancestors faced a near-extinction event around 900,000 years ago, with the global population dropping to just 1,280 breeding individuals. Using a novel genetic modeling technique, scientists have uncovered a severe population bottleneck that lasted for over 100,000 years. The findings raise new questions about how our ancestors survived this prolonged crisis and what role this event played in shaping modern humans.
🔗 Read more here: Scientific American: Human Ancestors Nearly Went Extinct 900,000 Years Ago [Scientific American]
The Guardian: Population Collapse Almost Wiped Out Human Ancestors
A groundbreaking study has revealed that human ancestors nearly disappeared from the planet 800,000 years ago, with numbers plummeting to a few thousand individuals. Scientists attribute this catastrophic decline to dramatic climate shifts that may have driven early humans to the brink of extinction. The study also suggests that this event may explain gaps in the African and Eurasian fossil record, shedding new light on the fragility and resilience of human survival.
🔗 Read more here: The Guardian: Population Collapse Almost Wiped Out Human Ancestors [The Guardian]
As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases at no extra cost to you.
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed [Amazon.com]
By Jared Diamond
A deep dive into why civilizations collapse, from environmental mismanagement to societal rigidity. Diamond examines past collapses (Easter Island, the Maya, Norse Greenland) and draws lessons for modern societies.
The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity [Amazon.com]
By David Graeber & David Wengrow
A groundbreaking reexamination of early human societies, challenging the traditional narrative that civilization followed a linear path. It suggests that past civilizations were far more complex and varied than we assume.
The Human Swarm: How Our Societies Arise, Thrive, and Fall [Amazon.com]
By Mark W. Moffett
An evolutionary perspective on human social structures, comparing them to animal societies and exploring why human civilizations emerge, endure, and collapse.
Stay tuned for the next installment: “The Bottleneck: When Humanity Almost Vanished”.
Image acknowledgement
The feature image is licensed via Depositphotos.com, edited with canva.com
