Introduction: A Complex and Controversial Question
Extreme weather events—hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and heatwaves—dominate headlines, often linked to climate change. Policymakers, scientists, and media outlets frequently claim that these events are becoming more severe and more frequent due to global warming.
But is the connection as straightforward as it seems?
While climate change can influence certain weather patterns, some scientists caution against oversimplifying the relationship between a warming planet and extreme weather events. Experts like Professor Andy Pitman (University of New South Wales) and Roger Pielke Jr. (University of Colorado) argue that while climate change affects the environment, attributing specific disasters to climate change is often misleading.
This article explores:
- The difference between climate and weather—and why it matters.
- What the IPCC actually says about extreme weather trends.
- Examples where climate change is wrongly blamed for natural disasters.
- The role of land use, urbanization, and natural climate cycles in extreme weather.
Weather vs. Climate: The Key Distinction
Before diving in, it’s important to clarify the difference between weather and climate:
✔ Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions—daily or seasonal fluctuations.
✔ Climate is the long-term average of weather patterns over decades or centuries.
This means that a single hurricane, wildfire, or flood is a weather event—not climate change itself. Climate change refers to long-term shifts in global or regional weather patterns.
Yet, the phrase “this disaster was caused by climate change” is now commonplace in public discourse—often without clear scientific backing.
Does Climate Change Really Make Extreme Weather Worse?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), often cited in climate discussions, has assessed how global warming influences extreme weather. The findings? It’s complicated.
Here’s a breakdown of what the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) actually says:
| Extreme Weather Event | IPCC Confidence in Climate Change Link |
|---|---|
| Heatwaves | Very likely increasing due to climate change |
| Heavy Rainfall & Flooding | Likely increasing in some regions |
| Hurricanes & Tropical Storms | Unclear—no strong global trend |
| Wildfires | Driven more by land management than climate change |
| Droughts | Some regions seeing increases, others seeing decreases |
🔹 Key Takeaway: The strongest link is between climate change and heatwaves—but for hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding, the evidence is mixed.
Cyclone Gabrielle (2023): A Misattributed Disaster?
A striking example of misattributed extreme weather is Cyclone Gabrielle, which hit New Zealand in February 2023. Many reports claimed it was a result of climate change, but there’s a scientific alternative explanation:
✔ The 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai underwater volcanic eruption injected a record-breaking amount of water vapor into the stratosphere.
✔ That water eventually came down as increased rainfall in the region, potentially contributing to extreme wet weather events like Cyclone Gabrielle.
✔ Despite this, Gabrielle was widely blamed on climate change, with little mention of the volcanic impact.
This raises an important question: How often are extreme events wrongly framed as climate change-driven when other factors are at play?
Wildfires: Climate Change or Poor Land Management?
Wildfires are often attributed to climate change, but is that the main cause?
✔ The IPCC states that wildfires are primarily driven by land use and forest management.
✔ In California, Canada, and Australia, many fires occur in overgrown forests where fire prevention strategies (like controlled burns) have been neglected.
✔ Human activity, such as arson and accidental ignitions, accounts for 85-90% of wildfires (National Interagency Fire Center, 2023).
🔹 Key Takeaway: While hotter temperatures can increase fire risk, the main drivers are poor land management and human activity—not necessarily climate change.
Hurricanes & Tropical Storms: No Clear Link to Climate Change
Hurricanes (also called typhoons or cyclones) are often cited as evidence of worsening extreme weather. However, historical data doesn’t show an increasing trend:
✔ The IPCC’s latest report states there is “no significant global trend” in hurricane frequency.
✔ Data from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) shows hurricane counts have remained relatively stable over the last century.
✔ While hurricanes may become stronger in a warming climate, their overall number hasn’t increased significantly.
🔹 Key Takeaway: There is no clear evidence that climate change is making hurricanes more frequent—though warmer waters may influence storm intensity.
Why Are Extreme Weather Events Often Blamed on Climate Change?
If the scientific evidence is mixed, why are so many extreme weather events immediately linked to climate change?
✔ Media Narratives & Public Perception:
- Dramatic headlines drive clicks and engagement.
- “Climate disaster” narratives align with policy agendas and activist messaging.
✔ Policy & Funding:
- Governments and agencies rely on extreme projections for funding, policy justifications, and climate initiatives.
- Certain industries (e.g., insurance) benefit from high-risk climate projections that allow them to raise premiums.
✔ Simplification of Complex Science:
- Climate and weather are complicated, and oversimplified claims make it easier for the public to grasp.
- Instead of saying “this wildfire was influenced by multiple factors”, it’s easier to say “climate change caused this.”
Conclusion: A More Nuanced Perspective on Extreme Weather
Climate change does affect weather patterns, but the relationship is far more complex than often presented.
✔ What is well-supported?
- Heatwaves and extreme temperatures are increasing due to climate change.
- Heavy rainfall events may be increasing in some regions.
✔ Where is the evidence weak?
- No clear trend of increasing hurricanes due to climate change.
- Wildfires are mainly driven by human factors and land management.
- Some extreme weather events (like Cyclone Gabrielle) may have natural causes unrelated to climate change.
Critical thinking starts with asking better questions and seeking out a wide range of viewpoints. Rather than blindly accepting that “climate change caused this disaster,” we should look deeper at the data, alternative explanations, and long-term trends.
Further Reading
Related Article: Climate Models—How Much Can We Trust Their Predictions?
Before diving into RCP 8.5, it’s important to understand the broader landscape of climate modeling—how these models are built, their limitations, and their role in shaping policy. This article explores why climate models, particularly extreme projections, are both influential and controversial.
🔗 Read more: https://criticalmindshift.com/climate-models-can-we-trust-them/
Other Recommended Resources:
The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters & Climate Change [amazon.com]
Roger Pielke Jr.
Roger Pielke Jr. challenges the widespread assumption that climate change is the primary driver of increasing disaster costs. Through a data-driven analysis, he explores how economic growth, urban expansion, and policy decisions contribute to rising damages from hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. By separating climate science from disaster economics, Pielke provides a nuanced perspective that questions common narratives and encourages evidence-based policy approaches to managing risk.
The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World [amazon.com]
William Nordhaus
Nobel Prize-winning economist William Nordhaus explores the uncertainties of climate modeling, the economic risks of global warming, and the challenges of policy responses. Using real-world data, he examines why extreme climate scenarios are debated and how economic models influence climate projections. A thought-provoking read for those interested in the intersection of science, economics, and policy.
Climate Change: What Everyone Needs to Know [amazon.com]
Joseph Romm
Written by climate expert Joseph Romm, this book provides a comprehensive and accessible overview of climate science, including how climate models work and how different emission scenarios shape projections. Romm explains the differences between high and low-emission pathways and their potential impacts on weather, ecosystems, and global stability. A great resource for both beginners and critical thinkers looking for a balanced perspective.
As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases at no extra cost to you.
IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021):
The latest climate science review, assessing extreme weather trends.
🔗 Read more: https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/
Three Ways NOAA Research Works to Improve Our Weather Forecasts
This article from NOAA highlights three key research areas that are advancing the accuracy of weather predictions. It discusses how innovative techniques, improved data analysis, and cutting-edge technology are transforming weather forecasting, helping to better predict extreme weather events like hurricanes, storms, and heatwaves. A must-read for anyone interested in how scientific research drives forecasting improvements.
🔗 Read more: https://research.noaa.gov/three-ways-noaa-research-works-to-improve-our-weather-forecasts/
Image acknowledgment:
We’re grateful to the talented photographers and designers on Unsplash for providing beautiful, free-to-use images. The image on this page is by Ubaid E. Alyafizi. Check out their work here: https://unsplash.com/@ibnualyafizi.
